Comparing IU 2012 vs. past IU teams

I’ve taken a look at where this IU team stands in comparison to past IU squads in the shot clock era (1986).  While imperfect, the best way to measure this current IU outfit to past versions is looking at the point differential. 

As it stands on February 17, IU is averaging 78.4 points per game and giving up 66 ppg.  On it’s face, that’s an incredibly impressive number competing with two of the best IU squads of the shot clock era.   

• The 1987 Championship team which went 30-4 and never ranked outside the top 5, had an almost identical 12 point differential.  They averaged 82.5ppg and gave up 70. 
• The 1993 Calbert Cheaney led outfit also spent the entire season in the top 5.  The ’93 team lost in the Regional Finals to Kansas (and probably would have won it all had they not lost Alan Henderson to injury late in the season) and averaged 86 ppg and gave up 72. 

But the similarities between IU in 2012 and the ’87 and ’93 teams end with the point differential.  Those Knight coached teams played a pre-conference schedule that included maybe one or two really weak opponents.  The rest of the schedule was filled with either Big Ten or NCAA tournament caliber programs.

In ’87 IU opened the season by beating Montana State by 35 and later beat Morehead State by 22.  In ’93 IU beat Murray State by 23 and Austin Peay by 46.  The rest of the opponents were respectable. 

By comparison, IU’s 2012 non-conference schedule is weak.  Even though IU’s current SOS is 13th in the nation, the ’87 and ’93 teams would have feasted on a non-conference slate including teams like: Chattanooga, Gardner-Webb, Savannah State, Howard, Maryland –Baltimore County and North Carolina Central.  

By compensating for these push-overs and eliminating half of the weaker opponents, IU’s point differential falls in line with past IU teams more on par with the ’12 edition.  These teams include:

2000 – This was Knight’s last IU team and it was a good one despite a disappointing first round exit in the Big Ten and NCAA Tournament.  Like this year’s squad, the ’00 team scored a lot of points but gave up close to 70 ppg.  In fact, on February 22, IU was ranked #16 in the nation which is almost identical to where IU stands 12 years later. 

1994 – This was the year after Calbert had graduated.  The ’94 team was led by Damon Bailey,  Alan Henderson and Brian Evans.  Similar to this year and 2000, the ’94 team averaged 80ppg, but couldn’t play a lick of defense.  The ’94 team reached the Sweet 16 before losing to Boston College.  On February 15, 1994, IU was ranked #16 in the nation. 

1986 – On a points adjusted basis, the ’86 team may be the squad most similar to the 2012 Hoosiers.  In ’86 IU averaged a whopping 76.3 ppg (remember the shot clock was 45 seconds in 1986 and there was no 3-point line) and gave up 69 points a game.  They finished the season 21-8 and on February 17, 1986 IU was once again ranked #16 in the nation. 

Interestingly, the ’86 Hoosiers put the Sagrin rating on the map.  As legend has it, then IU professor Jeff Sagrin watched Cleveland State shock IU in the first round of the NCAA knowing the result wasn’t the upset everyone thought.  His system had Cleveland State as a top 10 team which became evident when they reached the Sweet 16.  Sagrin argues that today, the ’86 Cleveland State team which averaged a staggering 87 ppg would be at least a three or four seed. 

Summary – If the three most similar IU teams are any indication, March may not be kind to IU this year.  IU teams that have given up a lot of points haven’t fared well in March with only one sweet sixteen appearance and two first round upsets.  Even the great ‘93 squad underperformed in the tournament in part because they gave up 10 points more per game than their ’92 final four team. 

The good news for IU?  The ’86 and ‘00 teams were young and had better days ahead.  In 2002 IU reached the NCAA finals.  And a year after a season on the brink in ’86, IU won it all in 1987.  I wouldn’t be shocked if IU reaches similar heights in 2013.

Rapid React: Putting Super Bowl XLVI into Historical Perspective

Rating the Super Bowl – I have this rated as the 9th best Super Bowl in my outdated Super Bowl rankings list.  Tonight’s game reminded me so much of the Niners-Bengals Super Bowl with John Taylor scoring a touchdown late.  Like Super Bowl XXIII, the game was low scoring and very conservatively played and it wasn’t until the final minutes where the game became really exciting.  The Manningham catch is the best Super Bowl catch I can remember since…..David Tyree. 

What this means for the Giants:  As I wrote on Friday, the Giants are this generations Raiders of the 80’s.  History probably won’t remember them as a great team because they weren’t a great team in the regular season.  Assuming he doesn’t win another, Eli Manning will join Plunkett as the most undistinguished two time Super Bowl winner.  Tom Coughlin might now have a case as the most underrated coach of our era.  He was underrated at Boston College and hopefully now he starts getting more credit, he’s earned it. 

What this means for the Patriots:  They’re done.  It’s now been 11 years since they won their first Super Bowl.  No coaching/QB combination has even come close to winning another after this long a gap.  The fact they were able to get back to the Super Bowl is a testament to the greatness of Bill Bellicheck. 

Halftime Show:  What the heck was that?  By far the worst halftime show I can remember.  Maddona looked and acted old out there.  After the Black Eye Peas incredible performance last year, Maddona’s act just seemed boring and not right for a football crowd.  And to lead off the performance with Vogue?  This is football, but I guess in a way it’s symbolic of Tom Brady’s fall from grace. 

Best Ad:  The Budweiser through the years ad was my favorite.  I’m also a sucker for the CareerBuilder Monkey’s ad.  I also liked the Dog getting in shape to chase the car. 

All Hail Indianapolis:  Indianapolis pulled off the perfect week.  In doing so, I think they earned the right to host another Super Bowl.  It’s an amazing accomplishment considering for a small sized cold weather city.  Here are what some writers are saying: 

Grantland Bill Simmons:  “If I could pick any city outside the Big Four for one random Super Bowl, why wouldn’t it be this one? As my buddy House said, ‘It just feels alive — it’s like surround sound. Since the moment we got here, I felt like something was going on in every direction.’ Isn’t that what a Super Bowl should feel like? I couldn’t be happier to be here.”

CBS New York:  Peter Schwartz writes, “A lot of people were quick to lament the fact that Indianapolis was hosting the Super Bowl, but I haven’t heard one person complain about it this week. In fact, everyone that I talked to had nothing but great things to say. Memo to the New York/New Jersey Host Committee for 2014: You have two years to prepare for the first ever outdoor cold-weather Super Bowl. Here’s hoping that you took plenty of notes this week!”

Pete Prisco, CBSSports.com:  Bob Kravitz is right: Indy deserves another Super Bowl. Great logistics for the game.
— Pete Prisco (@PriscoCBS) February 4, 2012

How the NY Giants resemble the 1980s’ Raiders

In looking back at past Super Bowl’s, the only historical analogy I could find is the similarity of the Oakland/Los Angeles Raiders of the 80s’ and the New York Giants. 

In 1980, Oakland became the first non-dominating regular season team to win the Super Bowl.  The Wildcard format had recently been introduced and Oakland went 11-5 in 1980 to become the first wild card team to win the Super Bowl.  The Raiders came into Superbowl XV as underdogs to the Eagles.  The Eagles had beaten them in the regular season and were probably the better team but played one of their worst games in the Super Bowl.

Much like the 1980 Raiders the 2007 Giants were not a great regular season team.  They were 10-6 and like the Raiders, won their playoff games on the road to get to the Super Bowl and avenge their regular season loss. 

The ’83 Raiders came into Super XVIII as heavy underdogs to the Redskins.  Many in DC believe the ’83 Skins were the best team of the Gibbs era.  Similar to the 2011 Patriots, the ’83 Skins had a veteran squad which led the league in offense but had a tendency to give up on points on defense.  Like the ’80 Eagles, the Redskins played their worst game of the season in their Super Bowl and the Raiders won. 

While the Raiders won the Super Bowl 38-9, the game was decided by three fluke plays, (blocked punt, interception return for a TD on a play before the half, and Marcus Allen’s famous run).  Prior to the game the 1983 Redskins were being discussed as the greatest team of all-time, with the loss, only Skins fans remember the team. 

Despite winning two Super Bowls in four seasons, head coach Tom Flores and QB Jim Plunkett never really got the credit they probably deserved.  True, the Raiders were not a dominate team in the regular season, but they played their best when it counted most. 

Super Bowl XLVI Prediction – I see a lot of Tom Flores in Tom Coughlin and a little Jim Plunkett in Eli Manning.  Both had distinguished careers but never discussed as an all-time great.  On Sunday the Giants face a team that reminds me so much of my beloved ’83 Redskins – - great coach, record setting offense, questionable defense.  In January 1984 the Skins and Raiders met in a city hosting the Super Bowl for the first time. 

If my analogy holds form, the Giants will find a way to win Sunday.  As hard as it is to pick a 9-7 team to win the Super Bowl, historically speaking a Giants victory makes sense. 

Time will tell if history remembers them more fondly than the Raiders from the 80s’.

Notre Dame’s 2012 Recruiting Class

When it comes to forecasting college football recruiting classes, the best theory I’ve read is the rule of thirds. 

In a typical class a third of the recruits will never play a relevant role on the team.  Another third will be primarily backups, special teams players and maybe a couple start in their fourth and fifth years.  The final third will define the recruiting class’ legacy.  These seven or eight recruits (a typical class has between 21 to 24) will ultimately determine the legacy of the class.  This final third is your 2-3 year starters, your team captains and impact players. 

When I started following recruiting it was hard to believe only a third of the class would play meaningful roles.  After all, each incoming recruit has a bio littered with high school and state records.  Part of the beauty of college football lies in the unknown for incoming recruits.  Unlike basketball recruits, there is a great uncertainty in forecasting the development of a football player from age 17 to 22.  With the rule of thirds in mind, let’s examine the 2012 Notre Dame recruiting class.

Size matters – In assessing Notre Dame’s 2012 haul the surprisingly small size of the class (16 recruits) jumps out.  ND had 21 scholarships available and while they’re were left at the alter by their second highest rated recruit, you wonder why Kelly wasn’t more aggressive in filling in the remaining spots.  16 total recruits ties the ND record for smallest recruiting class (2005). 

A small recruiting class tightens the margin of error.  You figure a third of these players will either transfer, sustain career ending injuries or just not be D-1 ready.  That leaves only 10 to 11 players who are your contributors.  Below is my guess on the three difference makers from the 2012 recruiting class and two sleeper recruits who might end up being in the top third:

Tee Shepard (DB) – Shepard will probably be the only four year starter in this class.  The great thing about highly rated defensive back recruits is that they usually play to their rating.  And Shepard was one of the highest rated defensive backs in the land. 

Sheldon Day (D-Tackle) – For some time I’ve been writing about how underrated the state of Indiana is for football recruits.  Of the past decade, no two ND players overachieved more than lightly recruited Jeff Smardiza and Tyler Eifert, both Indiana natives.  Day wasn’t lightly recruited.  He was rated the second best player in the state.  Given the depth on ND’s defensive line (can’t believe I wrote that) Day probably red-shirts next season, but expect him to be a 2-3 year starter at the critical nose tackle position. 

Ronnie Stanley (Offensive Tackle) – Athletic big man with a big frame.  From all reports a smart and extremely well spoken kid.  Highly rated, recruited by everyone.  Has all the makings of a solid 2-3 year starter on the offensive line.  

Chris Brown (WR/DB) – Brian Kelly called Brown the sleeper of the 2012 class.  Brown was relatively unknown when Kelly offered him a scholarship but he raised eyebrows when he became the national high school triple jump champion.  Be careful about getting overly excited about track stars, but if Kelly thinks Brown is the steal of the class, that’s good enough for me. 

Nick Baratti – If Brown is a sleeper, Baratti is a deep sleeper.  Baratti was the 76th ranked player in Texas, but his highlight tape shows an explosive athlete.   This is from his scouting report: 
Even more impressive than his 4.52 forty was his 10-yard dash time of 1.36 seconds and his 20-yard dash time of 2.42. Baratti’s time was significantly better than standout recruits Zac Brooks (1.55, 2.65), Brian Kimbrow (1.62, 2.67), and Cyrus Jones (1.75, 2.86) at the same event. Baratti’s time was also faster than the two players considered the nation’s fastest players Ronald Darby (1.52, 2.57) and Marvin Bracy (1.57, 2.62). Both times were second at the 2011 event and significantly faster than the fastest times (1.40, 2.50) at the 2012 Junior Combine.

My list leaves out the most highly rated recruit of the group, Gunner Kiel (QB).  I left Kiel off because he looked uncomfortable with the speed of the Army All-American game.  Kiel lit up southern Indiana competition but fared poorly against the two Indianapolis area teams he faced.  Expect next season to be a red-shirt season and then who knows. 

The problem Kelly is going to face is the pressure that will be on next year’s starting QB.  No player is more popular than the back-up QB, and when your back-up QB is a 5-star recruit from Indiana whose uncle was a former starting QB, next year’s QB1 is going to be under the gun the first time he throws an incomplete pass.  How Kelly handles the QB position should be the most interesting storyline of the 2012 season.

2012 Fast Food Rankings

It’s been three years and thousands of fast food calories since my 2009 fast food rankings.  My criteria for the rankings this year have changed.  For starters, I didn’t have criteria in 2009.  But in the past three years I became a father of two children. 

Kids change your perspective on a lot of things and fast food isn’t precluded.  So unlike the 2009 rankings, this list factors in the cleanliness of the restaurant, does the restaurant provide a kids menu and bonus points if they have a playground. 

The rankings are exclusive to the traditional fast food establishments.  If you open up the rankings to places like Subway, Chipotle, Five Guys then you bring in every sub, burrito and upscale burger chain in the nation.  I’ll save that ranking for another day. 

You’ll also notice Arby’s and Hardees have been dropped from the rankings.  Nothing against those establishments but I haven’t visited either since the ’09 rankings.  Without further ado: 

1.  In-N-Out – Ranks number one on my list for:  quality of food, consistency of food, and cleanliness.  My best fast food experience of 2011 occurred at the In-N-Out in Santa Barbara. The only knock is their patent discrimination against the Midwest and East Coast.  In-N-Out  recently expanded into Texas, but unless you’re in Dallas the next closest location is Tucson, Arizona. 

2. Chick-Fil-A– Is tops in catering to parents of young children and scores high in quality of food and cleanliness.  Chick-Fil-A staff will deliver your order to your table if they see young children in tow.  Their indoor playgrounds are spectacular.   Every once in a while I’ll get an order that is too greasy or the fries have too much salt, but those are few and far between.

Chick-Fil-A indoor playground

3. McDonalds – McD’s made the biggest jump from 2009.  McDonalds is in a class of one when it comes to marketing to children.  The mere sight of the Golden arches sends my son into a frenzy.   They have the deepest children’s menu and they get bonus points for having the best breakfast.  McD’s has flaws – - their fries are too salty, their service can be poor and bathrooms dirty – but at the end of the day they do a lot of things really well.

4. Sonic – Nobody does chili dogs and flavored sodas better.  But if hot dogs aren’t your thing, Soinc has endless snack-soda combinations.  Sonic is perfect for snacks and good for meals.  If only there were more locations. 

5. Wendy’s – Every time I leave Wendy’s I tell myself I need to go back more.  Wendy’s is consistent but there is nothing on the menu that I love.  I’ve heard their shakes are great, but I’m not a shake guy. 

6. Burger King – The King has just never been able to deliver good French fries.  They also don’t have an alternative bun to sesame seeds (which I’m allergic to).  BK is a very underrated breakfast spot with tasty coffee and cini-mini’s.

7. Taco Bell – Chipolte is slowly making Taco Bell obsolete.  I doubt we see them in my next fast food rankings.

Changing of the Guard — College Basketball Season

With the 2011 college football season ending six days ago, we’re already five days into the 2012 preseason.  For the next eight months I’ll be following recruiting commitments, de-commitments, NCAA investigations, and conference realignment but writing about it is a different matter.  The off-season tends to be more static and frankly difficult to write about. 

Onward to college basketball.  After all, cold Saturday afternoons in the winter bring to mind arenas filled with the smell of popcorn and sweat, not police blotters and high school verbals.  To lead us out of the tunnel, let’s take a look at Indiana through their first six games of Big Ten play. 

IU is a young team, talented enough to knock off the #1 and #2 ranked teams in December.  They won’t lose a player off this year’s squad and will plug in the #2 ranked recruiting class for 2012 .  Considering where Tom Crean started from in 2008, he should be in consideration for coach of the year.  All is not roses.  There are troubling tendencies I’ve noticed since the beginning of Big Ten play:

1. In the words of Coach Norman Dale, your defense is awful.  Is doesn’t take a roster full of five star recruits to play effective team defense.  Look at Wisconsin over the past decade or UVA this season.  A good coach can have average talent playing great team defense.  As a team, IU’s help defense, rebounding and stopping dribble penetration are the worst in the Big Ten. 

2. Ball movement – Maybe I’m a dinosaur, but the best offense involves movement and screens away from the ball.  Crean runs an NBA offense.  Most of IU’s shots are created off the dribble drive and screens on the ball.  Screening away from the ball is essentially non-existent.  The lack of movement makes IU an easy team to defend given their talent level. 

IU is entering the easiest four game stretch of their Big Ten Schedule.  At Nebraska, Penn State, at Wisconsin, Iowa.   Anything less than 3-1 and IU is probably looking at a sub .500 year in the Big Ten.  IU would still make the tournament given their big December, but backing in the tournament is not something typically done by a team ranked #7 as late as January. 

As long as IU makes the NCAA Tournament this year, the season will be a success.  It won’t be until next Fall when Crean finally goes face to face with typical IU expectations.

BCS Championship Game Prediction

Can someone explain why it’s so hard to beat a team twice in the same season?  I’ve heard this mentioned dozens of times in previews for the National Title game, but the claim is without merit.  It’s a lazy sports talk radio sound bite.  Let’s take a look at SEC rematches from the regular season to the SEC Championship Game. 

We’ve had a rematch of a regular season game a total of six times: 

1999 – Alabama over Florida.  Alabama beat Florida in the regular season. 
2000 – Florida over Auburn.  Florida won the regular season matchup.  
2001 – LSU over Tennessee.  I’ll get back to this game.
2003 – LSU over Georgia.  LSU beat Georgia in the regular season.
2004 – Auburn over Tennessee.  Auburn beat UT in the regular season. 
2010 – Auburn over South Carolina.  Auburn beat SC in the regular season. 

The team winning the regular season game is 5-1 in the rematches.  The exception being 2001 when LSU defeated #2 ranked Tennessee in the SEC Championship Game after losing in Knoxville in week three of the regular season. Now the coach of that 2001 LSU team was none other than Nick Saban. 

So what does this tell us?  At least in the SEC, beating a team twice in the same season is actually really easy.  It happens over 80 percent of the time.  But the only coach good enough to reverse the trend has been Nick Saban.  In the game of the century in November we saw two evenly matched teams as far as athletes.  I think the difference comes down to coaching, because of that,  I think Bama wins Monday night.  After all, it’s tough beating a team twice in the same season! 

Penn State Moving Forward – Where have we seen this before?  Storied program fires head football coach.  Head coaching job gets turned down by first, second, third, fourth option.  Program hires New England Patriots offensive coordinator who has exactly zero days of head coaching experience.  New hire will try to finish the all-important recruiting season as he remains coordinator for the Patriots. 

Penn State may have found a diamond in the rough with Bill O’Brien, but the overwhelming odds suggest they’ll be looking for a new head coach in four to five years.  For one, there is no precedent of success for a Belichick assistant to succeed on his own.  Weis, Crennel, Mangini, Josh McDaniel have all crashed and burned without Belichick.  Even more troublesome for Penn State is the track record of coaches who have taken over a storied programs with no prior head coaching experience at any level. 

On the recruiting front, Penn State has done itself no favors.  Hiring a coach who at the earliest is 11 days away from being able to recruit is going to further cripple this recruiting class.  If New England goes to the Super Bowl O’Brien will have missed out on the entire 2012 recruiting cycle which ends February 1.  In effect, PSU is self-imposing a year sanction on their football program. 

It’s always darkest before the dawn.  For Penn State, dawn could be years and years away.

Auld Lang Syne and the Annual Sports Cycle

The beginning of the new year is never easy.  Christmas parties and time off are replaced with a renewed focus on business and 2012 planning meetings.  The days are dark and the weather is bitter.   

One way I draw comfort this time of year is looking ahead to the annual sports lap around the calendar.  In my 30 some laps around the sports calendar I’ve developed a familiarity with each part of the year.  Every stop along the calendar brings some element of anticipation and excitement you can set your watch to.  Below are some of those stops.

January is the month you watch the Packers play on a frozen turf or the 49ers play in the mud in Candlestick.  It’s about watching the first tour stops of the PGA season at the Bob Hope or the Phoenix Open.   It’s seeing Sydney in the summer time and dreaming of someday going to the Australian Open. 

Buried in the middle of the otherwise brutal January-February stretch is Super Bowl Sunday.  I love everything about Super Bowl weekend.  I love the NFL Network showing replays of past Super Bowls and ESPN running Super Bowl highlights starting with Kansas City vs. Green Bay in the first Super Bowl through Green Bay/Pittsburgh last year. 

By the time Greg Gumbel is announcing the NCAA tournament field you’re starting to see glimpses of the coming of spring.  The weather is getting warmer and it’s staying light later.  Virginia Tech gets snubbed by the Selection Committee and you spend that first Thursday and Friday of the tournament rooting for the big upset. 

April comes in like a lion with the first weekend giving us the Final Four and the beginning of the baseball season.  Then we get the Masters where I already feel warmer just thinking about the green of Augusta.  Late April gives us mint julep’s and over-sized hats at the Kentucky Derby along with the NFL Draft.   

May brings the familiarity of the baseball season.  Monday night games in Fenway with a sun kissed Erin Andrews and Peter Gammons talking about some prospect in the Cape Code league.  It also brings the Indy 500 which symbolizes the beginning of summer.  Along with grilling burgers and dogs, Memorial Day also brings us the College Football preview magazines which reminds you football season is just around the corner. 

Does anything define the mid-summer better than the U.S. Open in late June or Wimbledon the following week? You get the continual drum that is Baseball Tonight at the end of every day of the summer.  Presidential election years give us the Summer Olympics which means watching Bob Costas work 120 hours weeks and actually caring about swimming relay races.  

As the summer winds down in late August the sports year comes to life.  Mike and Mike start previewing each NFL team and you thumb through a fantasy football magazine on your August vacation.  The countdown to that first Saturday in September begins and I delusionaly write about Notre Dame being a top ten team. 

Friday nights in September have an undefinable excitement to them.  Maybe it’s the sounds of the high school football game from your backyard or the cooler nights.  The Saturday mornings are crisp as you watch College Gameday and prepare for the day ahead.  Next thing you know the leaves are starting to turn and you’re picking out pumpkins and raking leaves. 

Humans are creatures of comfort and few things comfort me more than sports.  The annual sports lap is a constant in our ever-changing lives and reminds us of the things we have to be thankful for as we re-engage in the daily grind.

Grading the Disappointing Notre Dame 2011 Season

Brian Kelly was dealt a difficult set of circumstances for 2011:  Michael Floyd’s DUI in the spring, heightened expectations, and a four way QB competition with no one starter good enough to distinguish itself.   In hindsight Kelly would probably like a mulligan on each one. 

Michael Floyd’s DUI: Floyd was involved in his third alcohol related incident back in the spring.  To the surprise of even the more passionate ND fans, no suspension was handed out.  Looking back, that was a mistake.  The general belief was Floyd would be handed a two game suspension to start the season.  This would send the message that no player is beyond reproach and there are consequences for negative actions. 

The football gods didn’t smile on Kelly’s decision to forgo punishment.  The South Florida and Michigan games were two of the most inexplicable losses I can remember a team suffering.   The odds of ND losing those two games in the fashion they did were almost at the Act of God level.  You wonder if a break or two would have gone their way had Floyd been suspended? 

Heightened Expectations:  Every year, Notre Dame faces heightened expectations, it comes with having such a broad appeal nationwide.  Brian Kelly would be wise to tone down expectations in the years ahead and not fan the flames.  Be more Holtz and less Weis. 

Jimmy Johnson talked about how he would shake his head when reading comments from Holtz about how ND could never keep up with Miami’s speed.  Johnson claimed those Holtz teams from the 80’s had more speed on their bench than Miami had in their starting lineup.  The Holtz created perception placed Holtz in a no-lose situation.  If ND won, Holtz out-maneuvered Johnson despite a lack of talent.  If ND lost, they never really had a chance given the extreme level of talent for the Hurricanes. 

Kelly should sell 2012 as a transition year.  By the time ND takes the field against Navy, he should have the media believing anything better than 6-6 is a reach. 

The Quarterback Situation:  I don’t blame Kelly for his handling of the QB situation.  How do you bench Tommy Reese when he is 11-1 as a starter?  In hindsight it would have been good to get Hendrix more time but whether that would have improved ND’s record is debatable. 

Where Kelly is accountable is for the seeming lack of development in the play of the quarterbacks.  The difference between Tommy Reese at Michigan and the Reese we saw against Stanford and Florida State was stark.  If there is a silver lining from the disappointing season, it may be that there will be no QB controversy in 2012. 

Everett Golson was and still is the only Kelly chosen QB on the Irish roster.  By the end of spring camp, Kelly should name him as the starting QB.  As we’ve seen, waiting till the final week before the season opener to name your starter just invites a QB controversy the first time an interception is thrown. 

Lack of hitting in fall camp:  The one consistently negative trait of Brian Kelly coached teams is their penchant for starting slow in September.  One theory may be the lack of full contact drills in practice.  A quote from Kelly this August indicated he did less hitting than past years because this was a veteran group.

Notre Dame opened the season like a team not comfortable with contact.  Countless missed tackles, dropped punts, and fumbles cost ND the South Florida and Michigan games.  If I could pick one area for Kelly to change in 2012, it would be starting the season strong.  More contact in practice could go a long way in furthering that goal. 

Early prediction for 2012:  Notre Dame will most likely enter 2012 with their youngest team since 2007.  They’ll be led by a red-shirt freshman QB surrounded by an offense void of any real play-makers.  They’ll face a schedule featuring road games at: Oklahoma, USC, Michigan State.  Home games against:  Michigan, Stanford, BYU.  And a neutral site game against Miami.  Expect most pre-season publications predicting 6-6 or 7-5.  I predict 8-4. 

The third year of a coach’s tenure is when you start measuring the worth of a coach.  Ara Parseghian said by the third year the team will have taken on the coach’s personality.   2012 will mark the first season where Kelly recruits get the bulk of the playing time.  I think the pendulum begins to swing in Notre Dame’s favor in 2012.  Close losses will finally start to become close wins.  Notre Dame will start finding ways to win games instead of lose them.  And the disappointment of 2011 will give way to unbound optimism for the future.

Champs Sports Bowl Preview

One of the more clichéd statements in college football is the “if you have two quarterbacks who could be your starting QB you don’t have any starting quarterbacks.”

For the second time in the past five years ND entered the fall with four potential candidates for the starting QB position.  In both instances the season was a disappointment.  While I don’t blame Brian Kelly for his handling of the quarterbacks this season, I think privately, Kelly would love a mulligan on the 2011 season. 

In a way, the matchup with Florida State in the Champs Bowl is a lame duck game for Notre Dame.  There seems to be a consensus forming (and I agree) that redshirt freshman Everett Golson will be Notre Dame’s starting quarterback in 2012.  If true, that makes the FSU game the de facto tryout for the back-up QB position for next season. 

The quarterback position is the main reason why ND finds itself playing at 5:30 on December 29 as opposed to after the New Year. But if there was a more disappointing team in 2011 than Notre Dame, it was Florida State. 

Back in August, I didn’t know which way FSU would go this season.  On one hand they had a coach in his  second year who ended 2010 by soundly beating Florida and South Carolina.  As always FSU was loaded with talent and faced their traditionally light ACC schedule.  Conversely, Jimbo Fisher is in his second year at FSU, has no prior head coaching experience, and lost his starting QB to the first round of the draft. 

Fisher came to FSU from LSU as an offensive guru, but FSU’s defense is the only reason they won eight games this season.  Bobby Bowden was at FSU for 34 seasons.  If Fisher wants to last four seasons his offense (mainly his offensive line) needs to improve dramatically.  So while an 8-4 ND vs. an 8-4 FSU isn’t evoking memories of their ’93 Game of the Century, there is still plenty on the line. 

1. Recruiting – Win your bowl game and you win the month of January in recruiting.  We saw this last year when ND used the momentum from their win over Miami to pick-up their top three defensive recruits.  In 2008 was ND’s Aloha Bowl win with Manti Teo in attendance the key to landing the top defensive recruit in the nation? 

2. It’s Florida State – There seems to be a healthy dislike between the ND and FSU fanbases.  For what reason, I’m not completely sure.  The saying goes, you hate in others what you hate in yourself.  I think both programs see some of their worst traits in each other.  Both seem to be annually overrated.  Both can live in the past when their programs were truly dominate.  And both always claim to be one year away from reclaiming past glory.  The winner of the Nostalgia Bowl gets bragging rights for the foreseeable future. 

3.  Bowl Winning Streak – As unfulfilling as ND’s #2 ranked 2008 recruiting class turned out, they have the chance to be the first class since the 1990 recruiting class (Bryant Young, Jerome Bettis, Aaron Taylor, Reggie Brooks, Tom Carter) to win three consecutive bowl games.  Of course bowl winning streaks (and losing streaks) are relative.  As opposed to the 1990 group which won the Cotton Bowl, Sugar Bowl and Orange Bowl, the 2008 class has a chance to win the Aloha Bowl, Sun Bowl and Citrus Bowl.  Not exactly comparing apples to apples. 

Prediction – Looking at this objectively ND is justified in being a slight underdog.  They lost their offensive coordinator, they are starting a lame duck QB and are traveling to FSU’s backyard.  But therein lies the hidden beauty of a bowl game.  There is no way to predict how 19-22 year olds prepare for essentially an exhibition game after three weeks off. 

If I have a prediction, it’s that the winner of the Champs Bowl will head into 2012 overrated based on the Bowl win.  You can also count on Notre Dame being a completely different looking team when they take the field in 2012.